Calculated Risk: Housing December 26th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 2.7% Week-over-week
by Calculated Risk on 12/26/2022 10:50:00 AM
Active inventory decreased last week. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years (usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter – until early March):
2022: -14.0K
2021: -15.5K
2020: -16.9K
Click on graph for larger image.
This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of December 23rd, inventory was at 508 thousand (7-day average), compared to 522 thousand the prior week.
Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 63.7% from 310 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 16.2% from 437 thousand. However, compared to 3 years ago (2019), inventory is down 35.1% from 783 thousand.
1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4, 2022, for Altos) ✅
2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 20, 2022, for Altos) ✅
3. Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ✅
4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 35.1%).
Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.
A key will be if inventory declines slower than usual during the winter months – or starts increasing earlier than usual (bottom is usually in early March of each year).
