Calculated Risk: October Vehicle Sales Forecast: “Signs of Life”

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2022 01:54:00 PM

From WardsAuto: October U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Show Signs of Life (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

“The fourth-quarter SAAR is pegged at 14.2 million units, an improvement on Q2’s 13.3 million and Q3’s 13.4 million, but also meaning November-December results will weaken from October, with the primary reason being stiffer economic headwinds expected. Still, inventory will continue rising through the end of November, creating upside to the outlook”

Vehicle Sales ForecastClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for October (Red).

The Wards forecast of 14.7 million SAAR, would be up 9% from last month, and up 11% from a year ago (sales weakened in the second half of 2021, due to supply chain issues).

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, far behind housing.  However, this time, vehicle sales have been suppressed by supply chain issues, and sales will probably not be significantly impacted by higher interest rates. 

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